We’re watching the Alabama Senate results and the major networks and our friends at Decision Desk HQ all have Republican Roy Moore up by several points over Democrat Doug Jones, with about half of the precincts in.
So why hasn’t anyone called the race yet?
Two simple reasons.
First, Jones has outperformed his benchmarks in several key urban counties that are critical for Democrats, as Decision Desk points out:
With about half in for #ALSen, Moore is up 4%, but Jones is running ahead of his benchmarks (blue) in several crucial counties (Jefferson, Mobile, Tuscaloosa). http://pic.twitter.com/U3mX2EgTiG
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) December 13, 2017
Second, as is very common with election results, the metropolitan areas are some of the slowest to report, and those are the areas with the heaviest Democratic turnout. Until we see more complete results from the cities, Moore’s lead is not guaranteed to hold.
It’s all about turnout. Stay tuned.
UPDATE — More from Decision Desk’s Twitter feed:
Moore narrowly leading overall, but Jones is up by 7% in DDHQ's bellwether precincts for #ALSen.
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) December 13, 2017
Jones still running 1.5-2% ahead of what he needs compared to 2016 and 2012
— Ryne Rohla (@rarohla) December 13, 2017
UPDATE #2 — Moore maintains a very narrow lead but there still are a lot of votes left to report in the metropolitan areas.
Moore's problem: 22% of Jefferson, 40% of Madison, 33% of Mobile, and 28% of Montgomery with precincts reporting. The "Big 4"
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) December 13, 2017
DDHQ #ALSen results with 1907/2089 (91%) of precincts in:
Moore – 553,852 (49.2%)
Jones – 553,668 (49.2%)
Write-Ins – 17,565 (1.6%)— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) December 13, 2017
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