We reported last week that early ballots show a huge increase in voting in favor of Republicans. Two days ago this was still the case. Today it is still the case as well!
Our mid-term prediction on October 2nd was that the Republicans would win big in the Senate and would keep the House.
Early voting continues to indicate that the tide is turning red! Democrats are voting less than in 2016 which is expected. The bigger news is that Republicans are ahead of their 2016 early ballot pace!
In a series of tweets Larry Schweikart showed last week that early returns are shockingly strong for Republicans. Larry explained that he examines ballot requests and ballot returns by party. In 2016 party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew [Research] and party switchers in 2016 were 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats voting Republican:
6) I examine ballot REQUESTS and ballot RETURNS BY PARTY. (In 2016, party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew—very, very few party switchers, but those that were, by 2:1, went from Dem to Republican.
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
So Larry compared last week’s numbers to 2016. In four states where there are already a large number of ballot requests (Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Iowa) Republicans were exceeding 2016 numbers –
8) contd . . . from 2016, a Presidential Election. This is not supposed to happen.
9) Moreover, with the help of Freepers “Ravi” and “SpeedyInTexas” and “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant” and others, I have found that DemoKKKrats are falling behind their 2016 performance
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
Last week Democrats were behind 2016 Presidential year numbers, as might be expected, but Republicans were ahead of their 2016 turnout – this is not supposed to happen –
10) One would not be surprised that Ds are lagging behind 2016, a presidential election year. But it IS surprising that Rs are not only running ahead of 2014 (a midterm) but also 2016.
11) Just in case there was some weird state-wide tilt to these numbers, we also . . . .
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 18, 2018
Obviously, this good news for Republicans is not getting the attention it deserves due to the string of fake bomb packages sent to Democrat leaders and Trump-haters this week.
On Friday morning President Trump blamed the “bomb” hysteria for drowning out the good news for Republicans.
Republicans are doing so well in early voting, and at the polls, and now this “Bomb” stuff happens and the momentum greatly slows – news not talking politics. Very unfortunate, what is going on. Republicans, go out and vote!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2018
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